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Forecasting the Trend of Art Market

Mihaela-Eugenia Vasilache
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Mihaela-Eugenia Vasilache: Ph.D. Student, School of Advanced Studies of the Romanian Academy (SCOSAAR) - Economic, Social and Legal Sciences Department

Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), 2018, vol. 6, issue 1, 82-93

Abstract: The paper discusses two different methods to forecasting the global index of Art Market: a Holt-Winters type exponential smoothing method for times series with additive components (time trend and seasonal variation) and a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. Both methods point out that the decline of Art Market started in 2015 will continue in 2018 and 2019, and a slight recovery will be possible by 2020. We also presented a method for combining forecasts.

Keywords: Index of Art Market; forecasts; Holt-Winters method; SARIMA model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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