MODELLING OF VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN ROMANIA

Nicolae Jula

New Trends in Modelling and Economic Forecast (MEF 2011), 2012, vol. 1, issue 1, 121-139

Abstract: Romania has experienced a new electoral model, a model in which a gap between general elections and the Presidential election was introduced. Also in 2008 the election law was changed. The current design provides a uninominal voting system with a correction of the total number of seats by the total number of votes obtained by each party on the national level. In these circumstances, given the uninominal component of the vote for parliament, we analyze the significance of the signal given by the municipal elections, held in mid-year, over the results recorded in the general election (with 6 months lag). We also consider the relationship between regional distribution of votes in general elections and, respectively, Presidential elections (with one year lag). We use for this purpose regional data from elections in June 2008, from general elections in November that year, and the Presidential elections in November 2009. In building the econometric model used for electoral forecast we exploit both political variables and data concerning the state and dynamics of the economy, at the national and regional level.

Keywords: electoral process; regional election; electoral models; economic voting; political business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 D22 O18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ntu:ntumef:vol1-iss1-12-121

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New Trends in Modelling and Economic Forecast (MEF 2011) is currently edited by Bogdan OANCEA and Nicolae-Marius JULA

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