Estimation of the impact of the USD/EUR exchange rate on the gross foreign exchange reserves� dynamics in Bulgaria

Silvia Trifonova () and Mihail Konchev

Ikonomiceski i Sotsialni Alternativi, 2013, issue 4, 27-41

Abstract: The key objective of the paper is to examine the impact of the USD/EUR exchange rate on the gross foreign exchange reserves in Bulgaria. The reviewed period is January 1999 - October 2012. With this aim in our study the correlation between the USD/EUR exchange rate and the volume of the BNB�s external assets is estimated and analyzed, the most relevant model describig this relationship is determined and chosen and the model adequacy and explanation is defined. On this basis a forecast is made for the USD/EUR exchange rate monthly levels for the year 2013 and the expected volume of the country�s foreign exchange reserves for the same year is estimated according to the chosen model.

Keywords: USD/EUR exchange rate; foreign exchange reserves; forecasting; currency board arrangement; Bulgarian National Bank (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nwe:iisabg:y:2013:i:4:p:27-41

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