Dating and Forecasting Bulgaria's Business Cycle

Ivan Todorov and Aleksandar Aleksandrov ()
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Aleksandar Aleksandrov: SOUTH-WEST UNIVERSITY, Bulgaria

Ikonomiceski i Sotsialni Alternativi, 2018, issue 2, 31-42

Abstract: The goal of this article is to date Bulgaria’s business cycle and create a model for forecasting it. The objects of the article are the determinants of Bulgaria’s business cycle phases from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2016. The subject of the study is the influence of the interest spread, oil prices, building permits, the stock market index Sofix, the confidence in industrial sector and the GDP of the euro area countries on business cycle phases. The methodology logistic regression of time series has been used. All variables have a significant impact on business cycle phases and the direction of impact corresponds to theoretical expectations.

Keywords: business cycle; dating; forecasting; logistic regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nwe:iisabg:y:2018:i:2:p:31-42

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