Hidden Economy in Bulgaria Estimated by the MIMIC Approach

Vessela Dimitrova
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Vessela Dimitrova: University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria

Ikonomiceski i Sotsialni Alternativi, 2024, issue 4, 35-51

Abstract: The article is devoted to an assessment of the shadow economy in Bulgaria for the 2003 – 2023 period based on an empirical analysis of major relationships between selected macroeconomic indicators. The source of data used are official Bulgarian institutions like the National Statistical Institute (NSI), the Ministry of Finance (MF), and the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB). An econometric analysis is carried out applying the MIMIC approach. The results show that the size of the shadow economy for the studied period has increased from 35% in GDP for 2003 to 40% for 2009-2010. For the 2014-2022 period, this percentage has decreased and stabilized at levels of 35-37%. Despite a decreasing trend in the share of the shadow economy, it still represents a substantial part of the official economy of Bulgaria.

Keywords: Bulgaria; GDP; econometric analysis; hidden economy; MIMIC model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C39 C52 H10 H26 O17 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nwe:iisabg:y:2024:i:4:p:36-51

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