The Influence of Income and the Business Cycle on Birth Rates in Bulgaria, 2000-2016

Aleksandar Kosuliev ()
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Aleksandar Kosuliev: University of University of Ruse, Ruse, Bulgaria

Nauchni trudove, 2019, issue 5, 27-39

Abstract: In the last three decades the population of Bulgaria decreases, which poses a challenge for the country’s economic development. It is possible that the opposite relation – from economic to demographic processes – also exists. Our analysis show that in Bulgaria income and the business cycle on one hand and the birth rate, on the other, are correlated for the period 2000-2016. Regardless of the initial income level, birth rate falls when the economy is in a crisis and it goes up when the economy recovers. However long-term increase in the birth rate as a reaction to long-term growth is questionable, as total birth rate remains unchanged. Instead, increases in the income level shift the birth rate from lower to higher age groups.

Keywords: business cycle; birth rate; income; Bulgaria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 J1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nwe:natrud:y:2019:i:5:p:27-39

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