Assessing forecast performance
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, 2016, vol. 79, No 10, 19 p.
Assessing the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts is critical to identifying opportunities to improve macroeconomic advice. For example, revealing and then removing bias – from either persistently under- or over-estimating economic activity – would allow a policymaker to better assess the state of the economy, improving monetary (and fiscal) policy. Policy might also be improved by incorporating the beliefs of forecasters with a good track record.
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