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Assessing forecast performance

Kirdan Lees

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, 2016, vol. 79, No 10, 19 p.

Abstract: Assessing the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts is critical to identifying opportunities to improve macroeconomic advice. For example, revealing and then removing bias – from either persistently under- or over-estimating economic activity – would allow a policymaker to better assess the state of the economy, improving monetary (and fiscal) policy. Policy might also be improved by incorporating the beliefs of forecasters with a good track record.

Date: 2016
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