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The future of health and long-term care spending

Christine de la Maisonneuve and Joaquim Oliveira Martins ()

OECD Journal: Economic Studies, 2014, vol. 2014, issue 1, 61-96

Abstract: This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060, following up on the previous set of projections published in 2006. It disentangles health from long-term care expenditure as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the previous methodology, in particular by better identifying the underlying determinants of health and long-term care spending and by extending the country coverage to include BRIICS countries. A cost-containment and a cost-pressure scenario are provided together with sensitivity analysis. On average across OECD countries, total health and long-term care expenditure is projected to increase by 3.3 and 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2060 in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios, respectively. For the BRIICS over the same period, it is projected to increase by 2.8 and 7.3 percentage points of GDP in the costcontainment and the cost-pressure scenarios, respectively.

Keywords: Public health expenditures; long-term care expenditures; ageing populations; longevity; demographic and non-demographic effects; projection methods. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H51 I12 J11 J14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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