Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis

2004 - 2008

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Macroeconomic Forecasting: Debunking a Few Old Wives' Tales pp. 287-316: Stefano Siviero and Daniele Terlizzese
Nonparametric Forecasting of the Manufacturing Output Growth with Firm-level Survey Data pp. 317-331: Gérard Biau, Olivier Biau and Laurent Rouvière
Dating EU15 monthly business cycle jointly using GDP and IPI pp. 333-366: Monica Billio, Massimiliano Caporin and Guido Cazzavillan
The Cyclical and Trend Behavour of Australian Investment and Savings pp. 367-386: Bruce Felmingham and Arusha Cooray
Internet Business Tendency Surveys pp. 387-399: Anna Stangl

How Tight is the Labour Market?: Sources of Changes in the Aggregate Exit Rate from Unemployment across the Business Cycle pp. 155-173: Simen Gaure and Knut Røed
Inventories and Business Cycle Volatility: An Analysis Based on ISAE Survey Data pp. 175-197: Marco Malgarini
The Economic Sentiment Indicator: Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States pp. 199-215: Maria Silgoner
An Evaluation of Japanese Leading Indicators pp. 217-233: Hiroshi Yamada, Yuzo Honda and Yasuyoshi Tokutsu
Current Period Performance of OECD Composite Leading Indicators pp. 235-266: Ronny Nilsson and Emmanuelle Guidetti

Consumer Sentiment Surveys: Worldwide Review and Assessment pp. 7-42: Richard Curtin
Deviation Cycles in Manufacturing: Business Cycle Measurement and Leading Indicators pp. 43-77: Ard Reijer
Comparing Probability Forecasts in Markov Regime Switching Business Cycle Models pp. 79-98: Daniel Smith and Allan Layton
Improving Timeliness for Short-Term Economic Statistics pp. 99-119: Richard McKenzie
Cyclical Fluctuations in CIS Economies pp. 121-135: Peter Benczur, Emin Muradov and Attila Rátfai

Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method: A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference pp. 321-352: Steffen Henzel and Timo Wollmershäuser
Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR Models pp. 353-371: Laurent Ferrara and Dominique Guégan
Spatial and Temporal Time Series Conversion: A Consistent Estimator of the Error Variance-Covariance Matrix pp. 373-405: Massimo Gerli and Giovanni Marini
Extracting a Common Cycle from Series with Different Frequency: An Application to the Italian Economy pp. 407-429: Edoardo Otranto
Another Look at the Ifo Business Cycle Clock pp. 431-443: Klaus Abberger

Forecast Evaluation of European Commission Survey Indicators pp. 157-183: Christian Gayer
Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland: A Success Story? pp. 185-212: Tomasz Lysiak
A Generalized Dynamic Factor Model for the Belgian Economy: Identification of the Business Cycle and GDP Growth Forecasts pp. 213-247: Christophe van Nieuwenhuyze
Optimism, Pessimism and the Unforeseen: Modelling an Endogenous Business Cycle Driven by Strong Beliefs pp. 249-276: Friedrich L. Sell
Forecasting Corporate Investment: An Indicator Based on Revisions in the French Investment Survey pp. 277-305: Nicolas Ferrari

Business Cycles in the New EU Member Countries and their Conformity with the Euro Area pp. 7-41: Michael Artis, Massimiliano Marcellino and Tommaso Proietti
Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area pp. 43-69: Emanuel Mönch and Harald Uhlig
Out-of-sample Performance of Leading Indicators for the German Business Cycle: Single vs. Combined Forecasts pp. 71-87: Christian Dreger and Christian Schumacher
Benchmarking Systems of Seasonally Adjusted Time Series pp. 89-123: Tommaso di Fonzo and Marco Marini
New Design of the ISAE Manufacturing Survey pp. 125-142: Marco Malgarini, Patrizia Margani and Bianca Maria Martelli

Reconsidering the Evidence: Are Euro Area Business Cycles Converging? pp. 275-307: Michael Massmann and James Mitchell
Business Cycle Indexes: Does a Heap of Data Help? pp. 309-336: Robert Inklaar, Jan Jacobs and Ward Romp
Real-Time Data and Business Cycle Analysis in Germany pp. 337-361: Sarah Box
Revision of National Accounts: Swedish Expenditure Accounts and GDP pp. 363-385: Lars-Erik Öller and Karl-Gustav Hansson
New Bank Lending Survey of the Eurosystem: Interpretation and Use of First Results for Germany pp. 387-407: Hannah Sabine Hempell

Consumer Sentiment and Economic Activity: A Cross Country Comparison pp. 147-170: Roberto Golinelli and Giuseppe Parigi
Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter? pp. 171-191: Robert H. McGuckin and Ataman Ozyildirim
Detecting Cyclical Turning Points: The ABCD Approach and Two Probabilistic Indicators pp. 193-225: Jacques Anas and Laurent Ferrara
Markov Switching Models for GDP Growth in a Small Open Economy: The New Zealand Experience pp. 227-257: Robert Buckle, David Haugh and Peter Thomson

Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation pp. 13-41: Magnus Forsells and Geoff Kenny
Modelling Short-term Interest Rates in the Euro Area Using Business Survey Data pp. 43-69: Renata Grzeda Latocha and Gernot Nerb
Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data and Test of Consistent Expectations: A New Likelihood Approach pp. 71-92: Christian Dahl and Lin Xia
Detection of Turning Points in Business Cycles pp. 93-108: Eva Andersson, David Bock and Marianne Frisén
Coincident and Leading Indicators of Manufacturing Industry pp. 109-131: Richard Etter and Michael Graff