Will the Great Recession Lead to a Lasting Impact on Potential Output in Austria?

Paul Gaggl and Jürgen Janger

Monetary Policy & the Economy, 2009, issue 3, 26–52

Abstract: Based on the European Commission’s (2009) projections for potential output, we calculate a permanent potential output loss of between 4% and 6% until 2013, while we expect that the growth rate will eventually return to its precrisis level of close to 2% in the medium run before the effects of population aging set in. We do not expect high growth rates of actual GDP during the recovery. In a more pessimistic view, the effects of the crisis may seamlessly link with the effects of population aging on potential output, implying a decrease in trend potential output growth to about 1.5% by 2030. In an optimistic scenario, by 2011 most of the structural effects of the crisis will have disappeared and productivity growth will accelerate by 2020 to compensate for declining labor input, stabilizing the path of potential output. While uncertainty is high, it is likely that anti-climate-change policies, energy scarcity and an increase in both competition and demand from emerging markets will provide powerful incentives to innovate and invest. Adequate economic policies will be required in order to respond positively to these incentives. The crucial role of policies in raising medium-term output after severe recessions is also demonstrated by countries such as Finland, Sweden and Japan.

Keywords: potential output; financial crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:120d170d-74bf-4357-810 ... s02_tcm16-143519.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2009:i:3:b:2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria

Access Statistics for this article

Monetary Policy & the Economy is currently edited by Gerhard Fenz and Maria Teresa Valderrama

More articles in Monetary Policy & the Economy from Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Rita Glaser-Schwarz ().