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GRANGER CAUSALITY AND COINTEGRATION IN ROMANIA’S INFLATIONARY DYNAMICS – AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

Ioana Teodora Mester and Simut Ramona ()

Annals of Faculty of Economics, 2010, vol. 1, issue 1, 272-278

Abstract: One of the most difficult issues that monetary authorities in many developing economies have to deal with is the management of a stable price environment. Inflation can create uncertainty, a low level of investment, and raise costs in general, thus lowering rates of growth. As a result, there exists a widespread need for understanding inflationary dynamics in any country of interest, especially in developing countries, subject to more significant and volatile price changes. This paper develops a VEC model for the Romanian economy, using CPI index and other macroeconomic data, in order to capture the transmission mechanism of inflation.

Keywords: inflation forecasting; monetary policy; developing countries; Romania; VAR model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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