EXTERNAL FACTORS INFLUENCE ON INFLATION: THE CASE OF ROMANIA

Bogdan Capraru and Iulian Ihnatov ()

Annals of Faculty of Economics, 2011, vol. 1, issue 1, 469-475

Abstract: In this paper we try to assess the main external determinants of inflation dynamics in Romania. The literature in the field of measuring inflation dynamics is wealthy and various. There are many developing country - level studies that examine inflation dynamics: Blavy (2004) - Guinea, Duma (2008) - Sri Lanka, Gottschalk et al (2008) - Sierra Leone, Moriyama (2008) - Sudan, Mwase (2006) - Tanzania, Williams and Adedeji (2004) - Dominican Republic, Hossain (2005) - Indonesia, Almounsor (2010) - Yemen. The issue of Romanian inflation dynamics is present in many and various studies, like Hammermann (2007), Pelinescu and Dospinescu (2006), Budina et al (2006) etc. There are no other recent studies that analyze the external determinants on Romanian inflation dynamics. In our paper we estimate an OLS single equation model, using a methodology derived from Almounsor (2010). The empirical analysis uses monthly data from August 2005 to January 2011. The start point of the data series is the moment of a major change in the National Bank of Romania (NBR) monetary policy: adoption of the inflation targeting regime. The independent variables used in our research are: harmonized consumer price index of EU-25 countries, EUR/RON exchange rate, crude oil price index (for analyzing the external shocks effect) and M2 monetary aggregate (intermediate money supply) as a control variable. The outcomes suggest that inflation in Romania is driven mainly by international price shocks - harmonized consumer price index of EU-25 countries. The EUR/RON exchange rate depreciation has a small influence on domestic inflation. In the short run, the effect of the international oil price is insignificant. Money supply, used here as a control variable, is shown to have a very small effect on inflation in Romania when using OLS regressions. The results show that 66% of the domestic inflation variance is explained by the independent variables in our model.

Keywords: inflation dynamics; external shock; international prices; exchange rate; Romania (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro/volume/2011/n1/042.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2011:i:1:p:469-475

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Annals of Faculty of Economics from University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catalin ZMOLE ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).