PROGNOSIS OF MONTHLY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION THROUGH METHODS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS

Gagea Mariana, () and Balan Christiana Brigitte ()
Additional contact information
Gagea Mariana,: Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration
Balan Christiana Brigitte: Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

Annals of Faculty of Economics, 2008, vol. 2, issue 1, 848-853

Abstract: In this paper we propose the prognosis of the unemployment rate in the European Union through the Box-Jenkins method and the TRAMO/SEATS method as well as the detection of the method which proves to provide the best results. The monthly unemployment rate in the European Union is affected by seasonal variations of deterministic and stochastic nature. The prognosis through the Box-Jenkins nature supposes the separate consideration of seasonal variations, according to their specific nature. The stochastic seasonal variations are modelled and prognosticated simultaneously with the other components of the time series, based on the generating stochastic process. The prognosis of the monthly unemployment rate in the European Union through the TRAMO/SEATS methods is done by aggregating the individual prognoses of the components of the time series, obtained according to the stochastic processes models that generate them.

Keywords: seasonal variations; stochastic process; moving average; prognosis; performance indicators of the prognosis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 C60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://steconomice.uoradea.ro/anale/volume/2008/v2 ... ministration/155.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ora:journl:v:2:y:2008:i:1:p:848-853

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Annals of Faculty of Economics from University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catalin ZMOLE ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).