ROADMAPPING VS. S-CURVES: HOW TO SWITCH TO THE NEXT S-CURVE

Gerd Grau ()
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Gerd Grau: Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, United States of America

Interdisciplinary Management Research, 2013, vol. 9, 173-182

Abstract: There are two very important tools in managing technology: roadmapping and s-curves. Roadmapping can be a very effective tool to evolutionarily advance an existing technology. Conversely the idea of s-curves aids managers in the decision to make a revolutionary change to a new technology. The semiconductor industry is a prime example of a very successful roadmapping exercise. However, with continued scaling traditional microfabrication based on top-down lithography techniques becomes exceedingly expensive and complex. Many academic and industrial researchers work on alternative technologies to switch to the next s-curve. This work examines a first order approach to analyze such new technologies. The case of bottom-up nano-assembly is used as an illustration. Its merits are contrasted with current technology to come to a first assessment of its viability as the next s-curve. However, this is only a starting step to guide managers and technologists into the right direction when investigating new technologies.

Keywords: decision theory; managing technology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C44 D81 G11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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