The Chinese Conundrum: External Financial Strength, Domestic Financial Weakness

Brad Setser

CESifo Economic Studies, 2006, vol. 52, issue 2, 364-395

Abstract: China's recent investment boom looks much like the investment boom in the Asian tigers of the 1990s. Both were marked by a surge in bank credit to the private sector, a real estate boom and questions about the quality of domestic financial intermediation. Yet, China has few of the external vulnerabilities that marked the Asian tigers. Its current account surplus is rising, and its reserves far exceed its short-term external debt. However, China's external strength is unlikely to allow it to avoid future banking trouble and a new round of costly non-performing loans. The trigger for the next generation of bad loans in China, though, will not be sudden withdrawal of external credit (JEL classification: F32, G21). Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

Date: 2006
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