The Modality of Fiscal Consolidation and Current Account Adjustment

Antonis Adam and Thomas Moutos

CESifo Economic Studies, 2017, vol. 63, issue 2, 162-181

Abstract: In this article, we argue that supply-side adjustments (i.e. the reallocation of productive resources between the traded and non-traded sectors) can be an important determinant of the output costs of current account adjustment. The argument relies on the fact that tax evasion is more prevalent in the non-traded sector, which is dominated by services and the self-employed. Heavy reliance on tax-based fiscal consolidations induces a reallocation of economic activity towards the non-traded sector, thus requiring a larger decline in domestic absorption (and output) per unit of improvement in the current account balance. Using International Monetary Fund data for the period 1980–2011, we find that budget consolidations that relied more on tax increases than on spending decreases were associated with larger output costs per unit of current account improvement.

Keywords: current account adjustment; fiscal consolidation; non-traded goods; tax evasion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 F32 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Working Paper: The Modality of Fiscal Consolidation and Current Account Adjustment (2015)
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