Demography and income in the 21st century: a long-run perspective

Steven Brakman, Tristan Kohl and Charles van Marrewijk

Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2025, vol. 18, issue 1, 25-40

Abstract: The world faces massive demographic changes in the 21st century. We analyse the impact of changes in the share of the working-age population for the global income distribution. First, the historical impact of demography on economic growth indicates that a 1% higher share of the working-age population in the total population results in a 0.173 percentage points higher income growth rate. Second, we use United Nations population projections to predict income changes for the remainder of this century. Third, we show how the share of income shifts away from Europe, North America and China towards South Asia and Africa, such that the current global economic powers will see their influence on world affairs decline.

Keywords: demographic change; population distribution; age distribution; income predictions; economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Working Paper: Demography and Income in the 21st Century: A Long-Run Perspective (2024)
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Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society is currently edited by Judith Clifton, Anna Davies, Betsy Donald, Emil Evenhuis, Stefania Fiorentino (Associate Editor), Harry Garretsen, Meric Gertler, Amy Glasmeier, Mia Gray, Robert Hassink, Dieter Kogler, Michael Kitson, Linda Lobao, Charles van Marrewijk, Ron Martin, Peter Sunley, Peter Tyler and Chun Yang

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