The End of the Age-Crime Curve? A Historical Comparison of Male Arrest Rates in the United States, 1985–2019

James Tuttle

The British Journal of Criminology, 2024, vol. 64, issue 3, 638-655

Abstract: As presented in this article, the overall arrest rate for males in the United States no longer peaks during the late teenage years, contrary to the traditional conceptualization of the age-crime curve. Instead of peaking around age 18 and falling throughout adulthood, the overall arrest rate in 2019 did not peak until age 27. Using a dissimilarity index, the results show that the age-crime curve for overall, violent and property offenses during 2019 differs significantly from that of 1985. However, the age-crime curve is still apparent within the data when examined by birth cohort. It appears that a sudden decline in the proportion of offenses committed by 15-to-19-year-old males is responsible for the shift in the aggregate/cross-sectional age-crime curve.

Keywords: age-crime curve; life-course; historical; crime trends; theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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