Information and conflict: From the role of (social) media and public opinion to big data and forecasting

Maria Petrova and Augustin Tapsoba

Economic Policy, 2025, vol. 40, issue 124, 845-878

Abstract: Information plays a critical role in shaping behavior, particularly in conflict environments where access to and interpretation of information can significantly influence decisions. This review synthesizes recent empirical research at the intersection of information, media, and conflict. It is structured around three central themes. First, we examine how traditional and social media affect the dynamics of violence, ethnic tensions, hate crime, protests, and terrorism. We draw on historical and contemporary case studies to discuss how media influences conflict through incentives, persuasion, and coordination. Second, we explore how information and uncertainty shape the indirect socio-economic impacts of violence. They significantly alter the expectations and economic behavior of individuals, firms, and investors, even in regions not directly exposed to violence. Finally, we review recent advancements in conflict prediction using big data and artificial intelligence, with a focus on news-based models that identify early warning signals and latent risks of violence. Within each theme, we also outline key policy implications and identify gaps in the literature. These gaps call for greater synthesis across research areas to better understand and mitigate the impacts of conflict.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/epolic/eiaf012 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:ecpoli:v:40:y:2025:i:124:p:845-878.

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Policy is currently edited by Ghazala Azmat, Roberto Galbiati, Isabelle Mejean and Moritz Schularick

More articles in Economic Policy from CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po Contact information at EDIRC., CES Contact information at EDIRC., MSH Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Oxford University Press ().