The Predictive Power of 'Head-and-Shoulders' Price Patterns in the U.S. Stock Market

Gene Savin, Paul Weller and Jānis Zvingelis

Journal of Financial Econometrics, vol. 5, issue 2, 243-265

Abstract: We use the pattern recognition algorithm of Lo, Mamaysky, and Wang (2000) with some modifications to determine whether 'head-and-shoulders' (HS) price patterns have predictive power for future stock returns. The modifications include the use of filters based on typical price patterns identified by a technical analyst. With data from the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 over the period 1990-1999 we find little or no support for the profitability of a stand-alone trading strategy. But we do find strong evidence that the pattern had power to predict excess returns. Risk-adjusted excess returns to a trading strategy conditioned on 'head-and-shoulders' price patterns are 5-7% per year. Combining the strategy with the market portfolio produces a significant increase in excess return for a fixed level of risk exposure. Copyright , Oxford University Press.

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