The conditional indirect effect of commodity price shocks on economic growth in Africa through the moderation of official development assistance

Jean Tony Ezako

Oxford Open Economics, 2025, vol. 4

Abstract: This article aims to assess the conditional indirect effect of commodity price shocks through the Official Development Assistance (ODA) on real output growth, to allow optimal allocation of aid to prevent the potential negative impacts of these shocks in African countries. We used 42 African countries, 18 low-income countries and 24 middle-income countries, and moderated mediation with the PROCESS MACRO to estimate the model. The results show that the conditional indirect effect of commodity price shocks (mediated by governance effectiveness and moderated by ODA) on real output growth is positive and significant. We recommend strengthening cooperation through development support while considering the actual needs of recipient countries, types of aid and the donor, the sector, modality and the channel chosen to transmit this support.

Keywords: commodity price shocks; moderating mediation; developing countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C3 F1 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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