The economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration

Jonathan Portes and Giuseppe Forte

Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2017, vol. 33, issue suppl_1, S31-S44

Abstract: We analyse the determinants of migration flows to the UK, and the impact of restrictions on free movement post-Brexit, in both the short and long term. We then provide plausible, empirically based estimates of the likely impacts on growth and wages using relationships from the existing empirical literature. We find that Brexit-induced reductions in migration are likely to have a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector.

Keywords: Brexit; EU; GDP; immigration; wages (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J61 J68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

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