 The consequences of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement for the UK’s international tradeIlaria Fusacchia, Luca Salvatici () and L. Winters Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2022, vol. 38, issue 1, 27-49 Abstract: :We analyse the likely trade effects of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), which defines the post-Brexit trading environment between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). We apply a computable general equilibrium model and focus on trade in value added rather than just the gross values of exports and imports. We describe the TCA and estimate its effects on the costs of conducting UK–EU trade, including various non-tariff barriers in both goods and services. We suggest that the TCA will reduce UK trade significantly: total exports by around 7 per cent and imports by around 14 per cent. In terms of value added (i.e. incomes generated), textiles and vehicles, both of which trade extensively with the EU, suffer heavily, as do services which trade significantly with the EU, face large increases in trade barriers, and experience declining demand from other sectors as those sectors’ exports fall. Such inter-industry linkages spread the losses from Brexit widely through the economy. Keywords: Brexit; computable general equilibrium modelling; non-tariff measures; Trade and Cooperation Agreement; European Union; trade in value added (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:oxford:v:38:y:2022:i:1:p:27-49. Access Statistics for this article Oxford Review of Economic Policy is currently edited by Christopher Adam More articles in Oxford Review of Economic Policy from Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited |
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