Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements

V. Vance Roley and Carl Walsh

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1985, vol. 100, issue Supplement, 1011-1039

Abstract: This paper examines the response of the term structure of interest rates to weekly money announcements. Estimated responses for both the pre- and post-October 1979 periods are first presented. Then, two competing hypotheses involving the policy anticipations and expected inflation effects are formally specified and compared with the estimated responses. Both hypotheses are found to be consistent with the responses, but they have sharply different implications about the Federal Reserve's short-run monetary policy. By exploiting these different implications, additional empirical results focusing directly on the money stock process support the policy anticipations hypothesis.

Date: 1985
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Working Paper: Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements (1983)
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