Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States

Ray C. Fair

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1988, vol. 103, issue 2, 313-332

Abstract: There has been much recent discussion about the ultimate sources of macroeconomic variability. A number of authors attribute most of this variability to only a few sources, sometimes only one. Although there may be only a few important sources, this is far from obvious, since economies seem complicated. The purpose of this paper is to provide quantitative estimates of various sources of variability using a U. S. econometric model. Stochastic simulation is used to estimate how much the overall variances of real GNP and the GNP deflator are reduced when various shocks are suppressed in the model.

Date: 1988
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