Resolving Indeterminacy in Dynamic Settings: The Role of Shocks
David Frankel and
Ady Pauzner
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2000, vol. 115, issue 1, 285-304
Abstract:
This paper shows that the phenomenon of multiple equilibria can be fragile to the introduction of aggregate shocks. We examine a standard dynamic model of sectoral choice with external increasing returns. Without shocks, the outcome is indeterminate: there are multiple rational expectations equilibria. We then introduce shocks in the form of a parameter that follows a Brownian motion and affects relative productivity in the two sectors. We assume that the parameter can reach values at which working in either sector becomes a dominant choice. A unique equilibrium emerges; for any path of the random parameter, there is a unique path that the economy must follow. There is no role for multiple, self-fulfilling prophecies or sunspots.
Date: 2000
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (101)
Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1162/003355300554746 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
Related works:
Working Paper: Resolving Indeterminacy in Dynamic Settings: The Role of Shocks (2000)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:115:y:2000:i:1:p:285-304.
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://academic.oup.com/journals
Access Statistics for this article
The Quarterly Journal of Economics is currently edited by Robert J. Barro, Lawrence F. Katz, Nathan Nunn, Andrei Shleifer and Stefanie Stantcheva
More articles in The Quarterly Journal of Economics from President and Fellows of Harvard College
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Oxford University Press ().