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Some Problems in the Explanation of Interest Rates

Jan Tinbergen

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1947, vol. 61, issue 3, 397-438

Abstract: I. Scope of the paper, 397. — The credit market, 397. — Model A, 400. — Model B, 403. — Model C, 403. — Model D, 404. — Income lags, 405. — Ex-ante and ex-post concepts, 406. — The determinants of active savings, 409. — The determinants of depreciation allowances, 411. —The determinants of credit creation, 412, — Purchase and sale of securities, 412. — The demand side: new investment, 413; reinvestment, 414; cash holdings, 415. — Length of the elementary period, 417. — Keynes on the classical authors: savings, 418; net flow and gross flow, 420. — II. The markets for long and short credits, 423. — The demand for short credits, 424. — The supply of short credits, 425. — The demand for long credits, 426. — The supply of long credits, 426. — The cychcal behavior of interest rates, 427. — Interest rates in the principal countries: differences in level, 432; characteristics of movements, 432. — Econometric analysis, 433. — Interest rates and the price level, 434. — Physical determinants of the interest rate, 436. — Explaining the cyclical movement of interest rates, 437.

Date: 1947
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