Is Economic Uncertainty a Valid Intertemporal CAPM State Variable?

Basis assets

Qi Lin

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 2022, vol. 12, issue 4, 999-1040

Abstract: This paper evaluates whether economic uncertainty is consistent with the Merton (1973) intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) theory. The economic uncertainty index of Jurado, Ludvigson and Ng (2015) consistently predicts a significant increase in stock market volatility. However, its innovation carries a statistically insignificant price of covariance risk in the cross-section, thereby failing to satisfy the Maio and Santa-Clara (2012) sign restrictions associated with the ICAPM. I also find robust evidence by using the level of the economic uncertainty index (JEL G10, G11, G12).Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:rasset:v:12:y:2022:i:4:p:999-1040.

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