Estimating Trade Liberalization Effects for U.S. Grains and Cotton

Stephen L. Haley, Michael T. Herlihy and Brian Johnston

Review of Agricultural Economics, 1991, vol. 13, issue 1, 19-43

Abstract: The Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations is viewed by many as an historic opportunity to reform agricultural policies and liberalize agricultural trade. This paper analyzes the implications of assumptions about the effectiveness of acreage reduction programs, fixity of farm assets, and decoupling on trade liberalization results for U.S. grains and cotton. The range of outcomes for various slippage specifications is not very wide. More significant changes come from varying model supply elasticities that reflect the degree to which agricultural resources are not transferable to other sectors of the economy. Also, the degree to which deficiency payments are decoupled from production implies trade liberalization outcomes more favorable for the United States.

Date: 1991
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