Comparisons between Subjective and Statistical Forecasts of Crop Yields

James W. Pease, Ernest W. Wade, Jerry S. Skees and Chandra M. Shrestha

Review of Agricultural Economics, 1993, vol. 15, issue 2, 339-350

Abstract: This research highlights differences between farm-level prescriptive models that define optimal actions and descriptive models that simulate actual behavior. Statistical forecasting procedures of varying complexity are applied to farm-level yield series that have different length and composition. The forecasts are then compared with farmers' subjective expectations. Comparisons of data-based and subjective expectations are also made across crops. Although results are not completely consistent between corn and soybeans, there are indications that operators use simple cognitive procedures to estimate expected yields and other decisions. Crop insurance purchases are affected by differences between how farmers and policymakers formulate yield expectations.

Date: 1993
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