Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market

Andrew M. McKenzie, Bingrong Jiang, Harjanto Djunaidi, Linwood Hoffman and Eric J. Wailes

Review of Agricultural Economics, 2002, vol. 24, issue 2, 474-493

Abstract: This study examines short-run and long-run unbiasedness within the U.S. rice futures market. Standard OLS, cointegration, and error-correction models are used to determine unbiasedness. In addition, the forecasting performance of the rice futures market is analyzed and compared to out-of-sample forecasts derived from an additive ARIMA model and the error-correction model. The results of our unbiasedness tests and the forecasting performance of the rice futures market provide supporting evidence that the U.S. long-grain rough rice futures market is efficient. The results have important price risk management and price discovery implications for Arkansas and U.S. rice industry participants. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

Date: 2002
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