Using the catastrophe theory to discover transformative research topics

Haiyun Xu, Jos Winnink, Huawei Wu, Hongshen Pang and Chao Wang

Research Evaluation, 2022, vol. 31, issue 1, 61-79

Abstract: This study approaches the identification and prediction of transformative research topics by using the concepts of catastrophe theory. Based on the evaluation model of catastrophe theory, 11 indicators were selected for four different aspects: growth rate, economic and social influence, network characteristics and the degree of uncertainty in evaluating an emerging topics’ transformative potential. The stem cell research field is used as case study. The results of this study show that there are differences between various emerging research topics (ERTs) within the stem cell research field and their potential ability to induce changes and innovation. The method developed in this article is able to identify and predict the future transformative potential of ERTs and provides reference information for scientific and technological planning, industrial policy and scientific research management.

Keywords: transformative research topics; catastrophe theory; emerging research topics; catastrophic potential (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/reseval/rvab027 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:rseval:v:31:y:2022:i:1:p:61-79.

Access Statistics for this article

Research Evaluation is currently edited by Julia Melkers, Emanuela Reale and Thed van Leeuwen

More articles in Research Evaluation from Oxford University Press
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Oxford University Press ().