Assessment of direct and indirect effects of large technological programmes: Petrobrás Deepwater Programme in Brazil

André Tosi Furtado, Saul B Suslick, Newton M Pereira, Adriana G de Freitas and Laurent Bach

Research Evaluation, 1999, vol. 8, issue 3, 155-163

Abstract: Better mechanisms are needed for evaluating important market and non-market effects of large technological programmes that are not properly captured by existing methods. This paper presents a framework that permits the direct and indirect economic effects from large R&D programmes to be separated. Petrobrás' Deepwater Programme (Procap 1000) is used as a study-case because of its high technological content, and its great importance for oil production in Brazil. A sample of 27 projects from the programme over 23 years indicated an overall effect/cost ratio of 12.2 up to 1997, confirming the importance of R&D expenditure for economic growth. Learning obtained during the project's execution (indirect effect) was unexpectedly significant with an effect/cost ratio of 4.38 up to 1997. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.

Date: 1999
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