Forecasting of the effects of the last economic crisis and simulation of the potential emergence of new regional structure in Germany

Guenter Karl Haag, Philipp Liedl, Barbara Schwengler and Ekaterini Sdogou

Economics and Business Letters, 2014, vol. 3, issue 4, 276-287

Abstract: A new forecasting method and its application to Germany on district level (413 districts) is shortly presented. The forecasting was performed in 2008. The simulation period started in 2007 with time horizon 2015. A comparison of empirical data and simulated effects is shown for the period 2007 to 2009. The modelling approach brings together insights from regional economics, population dynamics and migration. In a bottom-up approach the economic development of the regional revenues and the volume of employment are linked with spatial redistribution processes due to commuting, migration and demographic changes. Scenario based simulations with the time horizon 2015 are also discussed, taking into account the structure of the regional economy and the job qualification of the labour force. The results are compared with empirical data for the years 2007 to 2009. The emergence of new regional structures will be discussed for the State of Bavaria.

Date: 2014
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