Descomponiendo el Efecto del Gasto Público en la Tasa de Cambio Real: Una Aproximación al Caso Colombiano || Decomposing the Effect of Public Spending on the Real Exchange Rate: An Approximation to the Colombian Case

Julio Alonso and Luis Eduardo Jaramillo Flechas ()
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Luis Eduardo Jaramillo Flechas: Oficina de Gestión de Proyectos de Investigación. Instituto Colombiano para la Evaluación de la Educación, Icfes. (Colombia)

Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, 2019, vol. 27, issue 1, 91-114

Abstract: Este trabajo analiza la relación entre la composición del gasto público y la tasa de cambio real (TCR) en Colombia, dada la recomposición desde 2004 desde los gastos de funcionamiento hacia la inversión pública. Los resultados sugieren que los modelos empíricos se comportan mejor al utilizar el precio relativo de los no transables y no un índice de tasa de cambio real basado en la paridad de poder adquisitivo. Asimismo, se evidencia que el comportamiento de la TCR se explica principalmente por factores de oferta y que, sin la recomposición del gasto público, su nivel esperado habría sido muy similar al observado. || This paper studies the relation between government spending composition and long-run behavior of Colombian real Exchange rate given the recomposition since 2004 from public consumption to public investment. Our results suggest that empirical models work better when the relative price of non-tradables is used as a measure of the real Exchange rate instead of an index based on the purchasing power parity. Besides, there is evidence that real exchange rate behavior is mainly explained by supply side factors and that without the recomposition, expected real Exchange rate would have been close to the observed one.

Keywords: gasto público, tasa de cambio real, precio relativo de bienes no transables, desalineamiento, Balassa-Samuelson; government spending, real exchange rate, relative price of non-tradables, misalignment, Balassa-Samuelson. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E62 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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