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Ex ante Dynamics of Real Effects of Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence for Poland and Russia, 2001–2003

Wojciech Charemza () and Svetlana Makarova ()

Comparative Economic Studies, 2006, vol. 48, issue 3, 458-479

Abstract: This paper proposes a new indicator of the expected real effects of an inflation-targeting monetary policy. This indicator can be derived from a simple two-dimensional vector autoregressive model of inflation and the output gap. A simulation experiment illustrates its rationale for timing monetary decisions, if the control of output is a secondary policy target. Applied for Poland, this might have contributed to a policy that would have reduced Polish inflation in 2003 and increased output growth in 2004. We also show how this indicator can be applied for RussiaComparative Economic Studies (2006) 48, 458–479. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100180

Date: 2006
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