Non-Positive Scaling Factor in Probability Quantification Methods: Deriving Consumer Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in the Whole Euro Area and Ireland

Tomasz Łyziak ()
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Tomasz Łyziak: National Bank of Poland, Ul. Swietokrzyska 11/21, Warsaw 00-919, Poland.
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Comparative Economic Studies, 2013, vol. 55, issue 1, 77-98

Abstract: There are problems with using probability quantification methods designed for polychotomous survey questions when the scaling factor applied in those methods becomes non-positive. The way of adjusting probability methods proposed in this article and verified empirically allows using them in such circumstances. The results for the euro area and Ireland suggest that the recent financial crisis made consumer inflation perception and expectations go down; however, it did not create deflationary expectations in this group of economic agents.

Date: 2013
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Working Paper: Non-positive scaling factor in probability quantification methods: deriving consumer inflation perceptions and expectations in the whole euro area and Ireland (2011)
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