Fiscal Forecasts and Slippages: The Role of the SGP and Domestic Fiscal Frameworks

Patrícia Martins and Leonida Correia ()

Comparative Economic Studies, 2016, vol. 58, issue 2, 226-253

Abstract: This paper studies the determinants of budget balance, public debt, and gross domestic product growth forecasts presented in the Stability and Convergence Programs for 15 European countries and respective forecasting errors for the period 1999–2009. Our results suggest that governments were more engaged in the preparation of budget balance forecasts than public debt forecasts because of the definition and application of the Stability and Growth Pact. Economic forecasts submitted by governments are generally more optimistic than those of the European Commission, but the inaccuracy is because of information problems. Countries with better domestic institutional frameworks publish more prudent economic forecasts.

Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ces/journal/v58/n2/pdf/ces201530a.pdf Link to full text PDF (application/pdf)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ces/journal/v58/n2/full/ces201530a.html Link to full text HTML (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:compes:v:58:y:2016:i:2:p:226-253

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/41294/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

Comparative Economic Studies is currently edited by Nauro Campos

More articles in Comparative Economic Studies from Palgrave Macmillan, Association for Comparative Economic Studies Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().