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J-Curve in Transition Economies: A Large Meta-analysis of the Determinants of Output Changes

Ichiro Iwasaki () and Kazuhiro Kumo ()
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Kazuhiro Kumo: Hitotsubashi University

Comparative Economic Studies, 2019, vol. 61, issue 1, 149-191

Abstract: Abstract Immediately after the collapse of socialism, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union fell into a serious output decline, after which they experienced a gradual recovery. Therefore, without exception, these countries followed a J-curved growth path. However, there were marked differences among them in the length and depth of the output fall and the speed of recovery. In this paper, we perform a comparative meta-analysis of the effect size and statistical significance of structural change, transformation policy, the legacy of socialism, inflation, and regional conflict in order to elucidate the mechanism that generated the J-shaped trajectory in transition economies. The meta-synthesis, which employs 3279 estimates drawn from 123 previous studies, revealed that while the growth-enhancing effects of structural change and transformation policy were small yet significant, inflation and regional conflict had a highly significant and strongly negative effect on output. In addition, the legacy of socialism might exacerbate the decline in production in the early stages of transition. The meta-regression analysis that simultaneously controls for various research conditions and the assessment of publication selection bias provides supporting evidence for the results obtained from the meta-synthesis.

Keywords: Output changes; Transition economies; Meta-analysis; Publication selection bias; Central and Eastern Europe; Former Soviet Union (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 O47 O57 P20 P21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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