Economics at your fingertips  

Bubbling Away: Forecasting Real Estate Prices, Rents, and Bubbles in a Transition Economy

Galina An (), Charles Becker () and Enoch Cheng ()
Additional contact information
Galina An: Kenyon College
Charles Becker: Duke University
Enoch Cheng: University of Colorado

Comparative Economic Studies, 2021, vol. 63, issue 2, No 5, 263-317

Abstract: Abstract Real housing prices have both surged and swooned in formerly socialist countries. We use 2000–2017 aggregate housing sales and rental price data from Kazakhstan to explore price movements during boom and stagnation eras, investigating the rent–price ratio’s (RPR) capacity to predict housing returns and rent growth for an emerging post-Soviet economy. RPR predicts returns better during periods of price increases than declines, and its importance in predicting the bubble component diminishes with time. Short-run RPR changes are consistent with rational bubble behavior during the period of secular upswing but different predictive variables matter during price increases and declines.

Keywords: Rent–price ratio; Bubbles; Transition economies; Kazakhstan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O18 P30 R21 R30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/41294/PS2

DOI: 10.1057/s41294-020-00138-9

Access Statistics for this article

Comparative Economic Studies is currently edited by Nauro Campos

More articles in Comparative Economic Studies from Palgrave Macmillan, Association for Comparative Economic Studies Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().

Page updated 2022-05-12
Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:63:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1057_s41294-020-00138-9