A Critical Analysis of DSA Projections

Antoine Gaudin, Brendan Harnoys Vannier () and Martin Kessler
Additional contact information
Antoine Gaudin: Finance for Development Lab
Brendan Harnoys Vannier: Finance for Development Lab
Martin Kessler: Finance for Development Lab

Development, 2024, vol. 67, issue 3, 233-247

Abstract: Abstract In this article, we construct a new database on 606 Debt Sustainability Assessments (DSAs) published for 68 Low Income Countries over 2013–2023, a period covering the last two methodology updates. We study associated forecast errors to account for IMF and WB biases given their central role in the perception of countries‘ performances. The recent methodological change does not display improvement in projection accuracy. DSAs display a tendency for optimism when projecting public and publicly guaranteed debt ratios (realized ratios are higher than projected). DSAs perform relatively better for Small Islands Developing States. Circumstantial determinants (IMF programmes or recession) deepen optimism biases.

Keywords: Low-income countries; Debt sustainability; Forecasting errors; Small islands developing states (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41301-025-00421-1 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:develp:v:67:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1057_s41301-025-00421-1

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... es/journal/41301/PS2

DOI: 10.1057/s41301-025-00421-1

Access Statistics for this article

Development is currently edited by Stefano Prato

More articles in Development from Palgrave Macmillan, Society for International Deveopment Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().