La croissance urbaine chinoise: convergence ou marche aléatoire&quest

Alexandra Schaffar, Michel Dimou and Mohamed Hazem
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Mohamed Hazem: LEAD, University of Toulon, Le Garde, France.

The European Journal of Development Research, 2013, vol. 25, issue 1, 154-167

Abstract: The aim of this article is to analyze the patterns of the Chinese urban growth from 1984 to 2004, a period of important economic, social and institutional changes within this country. This article follows a two-sequenced methodological path. First, it applies Ioannides et Overman's seminal work on urban growth, by elaborating a non-parametric relation between urban growth rates and city-size. Second, it uses convergence tests in order to study the city-size evolution. The article delivers evidence that when migrations are institutionally controlled, urban growth leads to convergence; when these controls loosen-up, urban growth follows a random walk process.L’objectif de cet article est de proposer une analyse de la croissance urbaine chinoise entre 1984 et 2004, une période marquée par des changements économiques, sociaux et institutionnels importants. Sur le plan méthodologique, ce travail s’appuie d’une part, sur une application de la démarche initiée par Ioannides et Overman (2003) permettant d’établir une relation non paramétrique entre le taux de croissance des villes et la taille urbaine et d’autre part, sur une analyse de la convergence des tailles urbaines chinoises. Ce travail montre que sous un régime de contrôle des migrations, la croissance urbaine dépend de la démographie des villes et conduit à une convergence des tailles urbaines. A partir des réformes de 1993 et l’assouplissement de ces contrôles, la croissance urbaine chinoise emprunte une marche aléatoire.

Date: 2013
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