Malawi at the Crossroads: Does the Fear of Contracting COVID-19 Affect the Propensity to Vote?

Gowokani Chirwa (), Boniface Dulani, Lonjezo Sithole, Joseph J. Chunga, Witness Alfonso and John Tengatenga
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Boniface Dulani: University of Malawi
Lonjezo Sithole: University of Malawi
Joseph J. Chunga: University of Malawi
Witness Alfonso: Institute of Public Opinion and Research
John Tengatenga: Institute of Public Opinion and Research

The European Journal of Development Research, 2022, vol. 34, issue 1, No 17, 409-431

Abstract: Abstract The new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has paralysed many sectors of human life, including economic, social-cultural and political processes. In the political arena, several countries have postponed elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Other countries, including Malawi, went ahead with their planned elections. Malawi held a presidential election at a time when the number of COVID-19 cases was increasing rapidly. In this paper, we assess the effect of the perceived risk of catching COVID-19 on willingness to vote in the Malawi presidential election that was held on 23 June 2020. Turn out in this election was ten percentage points lower than in the general elections that were held a year earlier. The paper draws on a nationally representative survey of adult Malawians (n = 1155). In our main analysis, we use instrumental variables to account for potential endogeneity. We find that nearly two thirds of Malawians thought that they were likely to catch COVID-19 at some point. Notwithstanding the COVID-19 risk, 86% of the country’s citizens were willing to vote. Our analysis shows that an individual’s perceived risk of catching COVID-19 is associated with a lower likelihood of voting (β = − 0.096; p

Keywords: Corona virus; COVID-19; Voting; Instrument variable; Risk; Malawi (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1057/s41287-020-00353-1

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