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Impact of Terms of Trade on GDP in the Context of Prebisch–Singer Theorem: Evidence from Egypt and Guinea

Ranjan Aneja () and Arjun ()
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Ranjan Aneja: Central University of Haryana
Arjun: Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology

The European Journal of Development Research, 2022, vol. 34, issue 5, No 18, 2575 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study investigates the relationship between the Net Barter terms of trade and GDP of two African countries namely Egypt and Guinea along with seeking to validate the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. To analysis the effects, the study has taken the data ranging from 1990 to 2019. To examine the relationship between Net Barter Terms of Trade and GDP, autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) have been employed. The findings of the study concludes that there exists a co-integration amid terms of trade and economic growth in the economy of Egypt, but Guinea remained out from the co-integration. The study also shows that there is a long-run and short-run relationship between the GDP and Terms of trade alone in Egypt with a comparative disadvantage in the terms of trade of a primary sector-oriented economy. Thus, the study partially validates the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis.

Keywords: Net barter terms of trade; Economic growth; Prebisch–Singer hypothesis; Co-integration; ARDL; Egypt and Guinea (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1057/s41287-021-00478-x

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