Modeling the IMF's Statistical Discrepancy in the Global Current Account

Jaime Marquez and Lisa Workman
Additional contact information
Jaime Marquez: International Monetary Fund
Lisa Workman: International Monetary Fund

IMF Staff Papers, 2001, vol. 48, issue 3, 4

Abstract: This paper offers a framework for judging when the discrepancy embodied in current account forecasts is large. The first step in implementing this framework involves developing an econometric model explaining the components of the aggregate discrepancy, estimating the associated parameters, and generating the aggregate discrepancy's conditional expectation. The second step is to compare this model-based forecast with the discrepancy embodied in countries' current-account forecasts. If the gap in discrepancies is below a critical value, then the discrepancy embodied in the countries' current account forecasts is not large. Otherwise, the discrepancy is large and calls for a careful reexamination of the associated current account forecasts. Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

JEL-codes: C52 F33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/staffp/2001/03/pdf/marquez.pdf main text (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:48:y:2002:i:3:p:4

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/41308/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in IMF Staff Papers from Palgrave Macmillan
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().