Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?

Andrew Berg (), Eduardo Borensztein and Catherine Pattillo

IMF Staff Papers, 2005, vol. 52, issue 3, 5

Abstract: Since 1999, IMF staff have been tracking several early warning system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly. Copyright 2005, International Monetary Fund

JEL-codes: F31 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (130)

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