Super Cycles in Real Metals Prices&quest

John Cuddington and Daniel Jerrett

IMF Staff Papers, 2008, vol. 55, issue 4, 541-565

Abstract: To borrow a phrase once used about business cycles, it can be said that “the study of super cycles necessarily begins with the measurement of super cycles” (adapted from Baxter and King, 1999). Are metal prices currently in the early phase of such a “super cycle”? Many market observers believe the answer is yes. Academics, on the other hand, are generally skeptical about the presence of long cycles. This paper searches for evidence of super cycles in metal prices by using band-pass filters to extract particular cyclical components from time series data. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that there have been three super cycles in the past 150 years or so, and that we are currently in the early phase of a fourth super cycle. Most analysts attribute the latter primarily to Chinese urbanization and industrialization. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 541–565. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.19; published online 19 August 2008

Date: 2008
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (97)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/journal/v55/n4/pdf/imfsp200819a.pdf Link to full text PDF (application/pdf)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/journal/v55/n4/full/imfsp200819a.html Link to full text HTML (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:4:p:541-565

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/41308/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in IMF Staff Papers from Palgrave Macmillan
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().