Sales forecasting in financial distribution: a comparison of quantitative forecasting methods
Jiří Šindelář ()
Additional contact information
Jiří Šindelář: University of Finance and Administration Prague
Journal of Financial Services Marketing, 2019, vol. 24, issue 3, 69-80
Abstract This paper deals with the issue of forecastability of sales activities of independent financial advisers (agents). Employing the most common quantitative methods on a diverse sample of timelines from multiple advisory companies, we have found that under most settings, these methods offer sub-par performance with high relative errors and no statistical differences between them. When a more granular approach is applied (reflecting sales unit size), ARIMA and the simple moving average emerge as significantly less accurate. This outcome is true for all sales units regardless of their size, when relative error is concerned. Thus, our analysis confirms the difficult forecastability of financial sales, speaking against the utilisation of more sophisticated forecasting methods, which mostly fail when compared to their much simpler and less costly counterparts.
Keywords: Financial sales; Sales forecasting; Quantitative forecasting; Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE); Linear model with mixed effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41264-019-00068-3 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:jofsma:v:24:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1057_s41264-019-00068-3
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Financial Services Marketing is currently edited by Tina Harrison
More articles in Journal of Financial Services Marketing from Palgrave Macmillan
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().