Group forecasting accuracy in hotels

S E Kimes
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S E Kimes: School of Hotel Administration, Cornell University

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1999, vol. 50, issue 11, 1104-1110

Abstract: Abstract Yield management helps hotels more profitably manage the capacity of their rooms. Hotels tend to have two types of business: transient and group. Yield management research and systems have been designed for transient business in which the group forecast is taken as a given. In this research, forecast data from approximately 90 hotels of a large North American hotel chain were used to determine the accuracy of group forecasts and to identify factors associated with accurate forecasts. Forecasts showed a positive bias and had a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 40% at two months before arrival; 30% at one month before arrival; and 10–15% on the day of arrival. Larger hotels, hotels with a higher dependence on group business, and hotels that updated their forecasts frequently during the month before arrival had more accurate forecasts.

Keywords: yield management; hotels; forecasting; groups (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2600770

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