A new look at the 3:1 rule of combat through Markov Stochastic Lanchester models

M Kress () and I Talmor ()
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M Kress: CEMA—Center for Military Analyses
I Talmor: CEMA—Center for Military Analyses

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1999, vol. 50, issue 7, 733-744

Abstract: Abstract The 3:1 rule of combat states that in order that for the attacker to win the battle, his forces should be at least three times the force of the defender. This somewhat vague statement has resulted in numerous interpretations and discussions from historical and military science points of view. In this paper we attempt to examine this rule by utilising a number of Markov Stochastic Lanchester models that correspond to various basic combat situations and to draw some conclusions from their implementations. We identify general combat situations where the 3:1 rule is reasonable as well as situations where the force ratio should be either smaller or larger. Since the analysis is performed in the formal and somewhat ‘sterile’ setting of (pure) mathematical modeling, the results should be appropriately interpreted as reasoning of a certain abstraction of the battlefield.

Keywords: battle; attrition; force ratio; Markov Stochastic Lanchester; breakpoint; exchange ratio (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2600758

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